Agree with your insights Steve! Best thing I got from SnH was to stop looking at social trends linearly. To avoid projecting ever improving towards techno -paradise, or seeing everything degrade to catastrophe.
So yeah things are getting worse, and then they'll get better again, and the cycles continue.
That still leaves me wondering, and it came up in a IRL conversation yesterday, what the peaks and valleys of the cycles are. How bad will things get before they turn around? History shows us that the low points are truly deeply low.
That leaves me wondering about the on-the-ground decisions individual citizens have to make with the limited information available to them? In our world that limited information includes the problem that much of what we think we know is mis- or dis-information very unique to our world. Of course every era has their propaganda, it's just that ours includes specifically AI videos, algo-driven echo bubbles, etc.
So, how would a German-Jew in the 1930s have known they should have left Germany? How would a French Aristocrat have known they should take a trip in July of 1789? And where should either of them have gone?
I don't have answers, just more trains of thought.
That's a great question about the low point. How bad will things get. Obviously none of us can accurately predict the future, but the need to be prepared is part of what keeps us looking to the past for guidance. One counsel that makes sense to me is that whatever may come, it's important to have the support of others. Jews fleeing 1930s Germany and Monarchists fleeing 1780s France both would have needed the help of others. So will all of us, to get through these times. So cultivate your support network - friends and family, the ones you trust. And be civil and engage with others in public, even if you are not sure you can trust them. Compel people to face their common humanity. I recall one of Timothy Snyder's 20 lessons on tyranny: "Make eye contact and small talk."
Mistakes will be made. Millennials now have a sense of Family and Community that will survive. 4th turnings crisis climax phase (2025-2030/2032) requires Boomers in Elderhood (over 65) GenX in midlife (64-44) and Millennials (43-20) in adulthood. As the crisis hits, each generation takes action aligned with their archetype, sometimes the opposite of their youth. Boomers speak from wisdom of strategy, vision, justice. GenX are the practical risk taking leaders and generals. Millennials sacrifice so the community survives. Trump's misinformation and disinformation campaigns have made information from media difficult to believe. So I have to use logic, reasoning and research to dig for the truth. Very few people have the training, experience and time that I have in retirement. How would an undocumented immigrant in 2025 know they might need to leave the USA? immigration to USA has dropped significantly in 2025.
"Boomers speak from wisdom of strategy, vision, justice." so the theory goes, but this has been a big problem for us this time through the gates of history. I'm not the first to say that the Boomer generation (I know that it's your generaion) has not provided the best political leadership. Agree with the immigration dropping - people are definitely getting the message.
I just found out that about 2/3 of our Federal Judges are over 65 in 2025. That is one source of wisdom and justice by Boomers. Boomer politicians are not the source of wisdom vision and justice. We have to look at Boomers in society, members of non-profits, and activists.
Who are the GenX leaders and managers and risk takers that will lead the Millennials? They are not GenX politicians. they are in private corporations.
Who are the Millennials that fill their Hero role? Not all Millennials will be called on to sacrifice. what kind of sacrifice will Millennials make? We will see the greatest transfer ever of wealth from Boomers to Millennials skipping GenX. Just like WWII, there will be millions of Millennials that survive the Climax Phase crisis and support families during the 1st turning.
"about 2/3 of our Federal Judges are over 65 in 2025. That is one source of wisdom and justice by Boomers.": potential source? what happens if they are kowtowing to the current admin? I guess this will make for an interesting moment in the Boomer lifecourse.
Agree with your insights Steve! Best thing I got from SnH was to stop looking at social trends linearly. To avoid projecting ever improving towards techno -paradise, or seeing everything degrade to catastrophe.
So yeah things are getting worse, and then they'll get better again, and the cycles continue.
That still leaves me wondering, and it came up in a IRL conversation yesterday, what the peaks and valleys of the cycles are. How bad will things get before they turn around? History shows us that the low points are truly deeply low.
That leaves me wondering about the on-the-ground decisions individual citizens have to make with the limited information available to them? In our world that limited information includes the problem that much of what we think we know is mis- or dis-information very unique to our world. Of course every era has their propaganda, it's just that ours includes specifically AI videos, algo-driven echo bubbles, etc.
So, how would a German-Jew in the 1930s have known they should have left Germany? How would a French Aristocrat have known they should take a trip in July of 1789? And where should either of them have gone?
I don't have answers, just more trains of thought.
That's a great question about the low point. How bad will things get. Obviously none of us can accurately predict the future, but the need to be prepared is part of what keeps us looking to the past for guidance. One counsel that makes sense to me is that whatever may come, it's important to have the support of others. Jews fleeing 1930s Germany and Monarchists fleeing 1780s France both would have needed the help of others. So will all of us, to get through these times. So cultivate your support network - friends and family, the ones you trust. And be civil and engage with others in public, even if you are not sure you can trust them. Compel people to face their common humanity. I recall one of Timothy Snyder's 20 lessons on tyranny: "Make eye contact and small talk."
Mistakes will be made. Millennials now have a sense of Family and Community that will survive. 4th turnings crisis climax phase (2025-2030/2032) requires Boomers in Elderhood (over 65) GenX in midlife (64-44) and Millennials (43-20) in adulthood. As the crisis hits, each generation takes action aligned with their archetype, sometimes the opposite of their youth. Boomers speak from wisdom of strategy, vision, justice. GenX are the practical risk taking leaders and generals. Millennials sacrifice so the community survives. Trump's misinformation and disinformation campaigns have made information from media difficult to believe. So I have to use logic, reasoning and research to dig for the truth. Very few people have the training, experience and time that I have in retirement. How would an undocumented immigrant in 2025 know they might need to leave the USA? immigration to USA has dropped significantly in 2025.
"Boomers speak from wisdom of strategy, vision, justice." so the theory goes, but this has been a big problem for us this time through the gates of history. I'm not the first to say that the Boomer generation (I know that it's your generaion) has not provided the best political leadership. Agree with the immigration dropping - people are definitely getting the message.
I just found out that about 2/3 of our Federal Judges are over 65 in 2025. That is one source of wisdom and justice by Boomers. Boomer politicians are not the source of wisdom vision and justice. We have to look at Boomers in society, members of non-profits, and activists.
Who are the GenX leaders and managers and risk takers that will lead the Millennials? They are not GenX politicians. they are in private corporations.
Who are the Millennials that fill their Hero role? Not all Millennials will be called on to sacrifice. what kind of sacrifice will Millennials make? We will see the greatest transfer ever of wealth from Boomers to Millennials skipping GenX. Just like WWII, there will be millions of Millennials that survive the Climax Phase crisis and support families during the 1st turning.
"about 2/3 of our Federal Judges are over 65 in 2025. That is one source of wisdom and justice by Boomers.": potential source? what happens if they are kowtowing to the current admin? I guess this will make for an interesting moment in the Boomer lifecourse.
Yes, think of the worst possible outcome.....that is the Climax Phase of the 4th turning... SCOTUS allows administration become authoritarian.